1. Overview
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Use case · Private Asset Valuation

Stop pricing private assets off a stale number.

Most infrastructure and private equity NAVs are built on smoothed appraisals, an arbitrary discount rate, or a handful of mismatched transactions. infraMetrics® and privateMetrics® replace all three with a single multi-factor model, recalibrated every month against real private-market deals — fully aligned with IFRS 13.

See the evidence Book a demo

The problem

Private NAVs are built on shaky foundations

Infrastructure appraisals typically rely on CAPM with a fixed, arbitrary beta and a long-run averaged risk premium — smoothed over time and disconnected from current market conditions. Private equity fares no better: only around 10% of reported figures come from genuine transactions, and the rest are appraisals or multiples borrowed from unrelated public markets. Both approaches produce NAVs that are stale, artificially smooth, and understate real risk.

"Because so few private companies trade, valuations built on a handful of raw multiples rest on shaky foundations. In effect, private valuations are built on sand."
— privateMetrics® Asset Valuation Methodology, SIPA, 2026

The SIPA approach

One model, calibrated to the market, every month

infraMetrics® and privateMetrics® solve this the same way: a multi-factor pricing model calibrated monthly against thousands of real private-market transactions, separating genuine market-price signal from each deal's noise. The output is a fresh discount rate or multiple for every asset, every month — usable to build robust, granular valuation "Anchors" for any infrastructure or private-equity investment.

Global infrastructure equity market risk premium

Monthly, 2000–2024. The market-wide component of the discount rate infraMetrics® adds to the risk-free curve for each asset, recalibrated every month.

12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2024
Monthly series reconstructed to match the shape and texture of the published figure, not exact extracted values. Shaded bands mark the dot-com crash, 2002 sell-off, global financial crisis, Eurozone debt crisis, 2015–16 sell-off & Brexit, 2018 sell-off, Covid-19 and the Ukraine war. Source: infraMetrics® Asset Valuation Methodology, SIPA, September 2024.

The model

A handful of factors, not a single arbitrary beta

Each model decomposes observed transaction prices into a small set of systematic risk factors, estimated with a Kalman filter that updates factor prices as every new deal arrives — separating the market-wide price of risk from the noise of any one transaction. Each asset is also classified into a taxonomy — TICCS® for infrastructure, PECCS® for private companies — so factor exposures can be compared within like-for-like market segments.

infraMetrics® — 5 factors

Plus TICCS® segment (sector, contract type, corporate structure)

  • SizeLower price

    Total assets. Larger, more complex assets are less liquid and trade at a discount.

  • LeverageLower price

    Senior debt / total assets. More leverage makes future dividends less predictable.

  • ProfitabilityHigher price

    Return on assets before tax. More profitable companies pay more predictable dividends.

  • CapexLower price

    Capex / total assets. Heavy investment signals cost-overrun and delay risk.

  • Country riskLower price

    30-year minus 3-month yield spread. A steeper curve signals more macro uncertainty.

privateMetrics® — 6 factors

Plus PECCS® segment (activity, lifecycle, revenue & customer model)

  • SizeLower price

    Revenues. Larger companies are more illiquid and trade at a discount.

  • GrowthHigher price

    Change in revenues. Faster-growing companies are more sought after.

  • LeverageHigher price

    Total debt / revenues. Companies that can borrow more tend to have steadier cash flows.

  • ProfitabilityHigher price

    EBITDA margin. More profitable companies have less uncertain payouts.

  • MaturityLower price

    Years since incorporation. Mature companies show less growth potential.

  • Country riskLower price

    Term spread. Companies in higher-risk countries trade at a steeper discount.

"Lower / higher price" describes each factor's effect on valuation, all else being equal, based on 1,000+ infrastructure and 10,000+ private-equity transactions.

The evidence

Tested against thousands of real transactions

Both models are tested against real deal data across every market segment, and the results hold up.

<5%
Average pricing error against observed transactions, by market segment — and closer to zero still in aggregate, since an index is itself an average across hundreds of assets
0.88 / 0.67
Sharpe ratio for infra300® / private2000® — in line with the S&P 500 (0.85) and MSCI World (0.67), not the 1.8–2.1 reported by appraisal-based peers
None
Serial correlation in monthly returns — Preqin, MSCI, Cambridge Associates and Burgiss indices all show it
11,000+
Real transactions calibrating the two models, with new deals added every month

Sharpe ratios stay realistic, not implausible

Monthly total returns (USD), 2013–2024. Appraisal-based indices report Sharpe ratios closer to a fabricated track record than to any genuinely marked-to-market asset class.

Marked-to-market

infra300®SIPA
0.88
S&P 500
0.85
Dow Jones
0.73
private2000®SIPA
0.67
MSCI World
0.67
STOXX
0.56

Appraisal-based (flagged)

Cambridge Assoc.
1.81
Burgiss
1.95
Preqin
2.10
"Madoff" ref.
3.00
Marked-to-market Appraisal-based (implausibly smooth)

Methodology

Read the full methodology

Two papers set out the model in full — the risk factors, the calibration process, and the robustness tests — for infrastructure equity and private equity respectively.

Methodology · PDF · September 2024

infraMetrics® Asset Valuation Methodology

How the model prices unlisted infrastructure equity: five systematic risk factors calibrated to 1,200+ transactions over 25 years, tested across all eight TICCS® industry classes.

Download methodology
Methodology · PDF · February 2026

privateMetrics® Asset Valuation Methodology

How the model prices unlisted private companies: six risk factors calibrated to 10,000+ deals, mapped onto the PECCS® taxonomy across every activity and lifecycle class.

Download methodology

Get a market-calibrated valuation for your portfolio

Our team can walk through how shadow pricing and valuation Anchors apply to your infrastructure or private-equity holdings.
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